Air cargo tonnage fell again in mid‑April, with global volumes sliding for a second consecutive week as post‑Easter slowdowns and regional holidays weighed on demand, according to the latest WorldACD market data.

Worldwide chargeable weight dropped 6% week‑on‑week in Week 15 (April 6 to 12) , following a 3% decline the previous week, pushing global tonnages to 8% below the same week last year. 

Europe saw the steepest fall, with outbound tonnage plunging 15% due to widespread Easter holidays. Declines also hit Africa (‑7%), Asia Pacific (‑3%), the Middle East & South Asia (‑3%), and North America (‑2%).

Despite the drop in demand, global air cargo capacity rose 1% week‑on‑week, driven by a 7% rebound in capacity from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA). Even with the recent recovery, MESA capacity remains around 20% below last year’s levels, reflecting ongoing disruptions and reroutings affecting carriers in the region.

Within the MESA region, air cargo capacity from South Asia has recovered to within -5% of pre-war levels, with new capacity direct to Europe largely replacing capacity previously linking South Asia with other airports within or via the MESA region. 

Tonnages from MESA to Europe in week 15 were actually up +3%, YoY, with volumes from India down slightly (-4%), while there was a big surge in traffic in week 15 from Bangladesh to Europe.

On the pricing side, average rates from MESA to Europe in week 15 were up by 89%, year on year, to US$4.53 per kilo, including a 77% YoY increase from India, a 94% YoY rise from Bangladesh, and 71% YoY increase from Sri Lanka.

Across Weeks 14 and 15 combined, MESA capacity was 14% higher than the previous two weeks but still 25% lower year‑on‑year. Yet tonnage from the region edged 5% above last year, supported by strong freighter deployment, elevated demand, and spillover from ocean freight delays and backlogs.

 Last year's Eid‑al‑Fitr timing also contributed to the year‑on‑year comparison.

WorldACD said the mismatch between rising capacity and falling demand underscores a market still adjusting to shifting trade flows and regional disruptions, with carriers facing pressure as the second quarter begins.

“Uncertain” outlook remains

Looking ahead, WorldACD said the two-week ceasefire agreement this month between Washington and Teheran raised hopes of a lasting settlement of the conflict, although “the truce remains fragile and the outlook for peace is uncertain.”

“Most observers have warned that inflation and elevated fuel costs are likely to persist for some time, even if the current ceasefire holds, and there are increasing concerns that jet fuel shortages and rising costs of jet fuel will lead to flight cancellations and further air cargo rate rises in the coming weeks unless there is a swift resolution to the current crisis,” the air cargo market data provider said.

Meanwhile, WorldACD added that bellyhold capacity through the Middle East will take time to fully recover, and container lines do not expect a return to pre-conflict flows any time soon, meaning air cargo pricing is likely to remain elevated for some time.