Boeing has announced the end of its programme to turn Boeing 747-400 passenger aircraft into cargo planes. In October, the plane manufacturer formally announced that management had decided to cancel the programme.

To some industry executives, Boeing’s decision merely seals the inevitable. One executive from a freighter conversion specialist likened the 747 conversion scene to a graveyard.

Boeing last delivered a converted 747-400 cargo aircraft in 2012.

Faced with relentless downward pressure on yields owing to abundant capacity chasing too little cargo in nearly every market around the globe, airlines have been pushed to shrink their all-cargo capacity. Recent years have seen a steady exodus not only of 747-400BCFs but also newer 747-400 production freighters. Cathay Pacific retired its last two 747-400Fs this summer, leaving it with a freighter fleet composed entirely of 747-8 and 747-400ER freighters, plus a lone 747-400BCF.

Low oil prices may have alleviated the pain of operating older 747 freighters and rendered them more attractive versus the high acquisition cost of 747-8Fs, but the need to maximize load factors through capacity reduction has hastened their exit.

As converted – as well as production – 747-400 freighters are headed for the shadows, a large question mark looms over their successor, the 747-8. The passenger version of the type never gained much traction, and the freighter programme has been struggling. In April, Boeing announced that with effect from September it would throttle down production of the aircraft from 12 a year to just six – a single freighter every two months.

In 2013, Boeing was still producing two 747-8Fs a month, but sluggish demand forced it to slow down its output. In the summer the manufacturer went one step further, signalling the possible end of the 747-8 altogether. In its filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission towards the end of that month Boeing stated that without sufficient new orders and/or an inability to mitigate market, production or other risks, “it is reasonably possible that we could decide to end production of the 747.”

The demise of the 747-8 would mark the end of an era that began in 1969, when the first 747-100 entered the market. It would leave a gap in the market, with no aircraft other than the Antonov 124 in a similar bracket in terms of payload capability. The next largest freighter in commercial service is the 777-200F, which can carry 105 tons, significantly less than the 140 tons that the 747-8 can lift.

Arguably a bigger loss would be the disappearance of large freighters with nose-loading capabilities, but most operators have shrugged off that issue, pointing to the presence of 747-8 freighters for decades to come.

In late October, UPS placed an order for 14 747-8 freighters, plus 14 options. This prompted speculation in some quarters about a longer run for the type. However, with only 109 747-8 passenger and freighter aircraft delivered to date, an order for 14, or even 28, planes still appears a long shot to justify an extended production run.

Many Asian carriers like EVA Air or China Southern, which used to operate 747-400 cargo aircraft, have decided to renew their freighter fleets with 777Fs instead and are phasing out their 747 contingents both in the passenger and cargo sectors. Of the large all-cargo airlines that are using 747-8Fs, Cargolux recently announced a major review of its business, indicating that without significant change it may not survive as a cargo carrier, which hardly indicates an appetite for more large freighters with price tags north of the US$300 million mark. Nippon Cargo Airlines is not showing appetite for growth, and AirBridge should have more than enough 747-8s to find markets for.

In its 20-year market forecast released at the Air Cargo Forum in Paris in October, Boeing predicted stronger growth in the narrowbody freighter segment, driven by e-commerce. “The growth of the standard-body share of the fleet will result in a decline in the large- and medium-widebody shares of the total fleet over the forecast period, from 31% and 33% to 28% and 31%, respectively,” it declared.

Rival Airbus, which has no freighter larger than the A330-200F in the market, is even less sanguine on the outlook for large freighters. Its recently published long-term industry forecast projections that bellyhold capacity will boost its share of the global freight market from 52% in 2015 to 62% by 2035.

By Ian Putzger

Air Freight Correspondent | Toronto