A major East/West reshuffle is on the horizon, according to informed sources within those companies concerned with the possible shake-up. The reshuffle will follow the much-talked-about possible merger of COSCO and China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL), which is expected to reach fruition in either a positive or negative manner within the next four weeks.

COSCO and CSCL have already built up a management task force in Europe to study the merger between the two companies, and sources within the industry have just confirmed that, assuming the outcome is positive, CSCL would join the CKYHE alliance comprising COSCO, K Line, Yangming, Hanjin and Evergreen, leaving further question marks over the future structure of the Ocean Three agreement, of which CSCL is an existing member.

But with the merger still officially uncertain as of yet, lines are already making preliminary moves to ready themselves for the eventual outcome to what is set to be the biggest alliance shakeup for many years.

Yangming is ending its slot purchase deal on the O3 Asia/Europe service known as the AEX1/AEC1. CMA-CGM markets the service as the FAL8 but has slots – no capacity deployed. Capacity is only deployed by China Shipping and UASC.

The last westbound sailing for Yangming took place on October 1 from Qingdao by the 14,993 TEU UASC newbuilding, Al Nasriyah, returning eastbound from Felixstowe on November 6.

Yangming has marketed the service, which deploys 12 x 13,000/19,000 TEU vessels, as the AX1. Port rotation is Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, Yantian, Port Kelang, Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Port Kelang, Yantian and Qingdao. Other slot purchasers include COSCO, K Line, Hanjin, Evergreen.

Further on, the O3 lines are reportedly plagued with issues concerning internal structures, and assuming that CSCL does move on after the remaining two lines, CMA-CGM and UASC will obviously be looking for another partner. It is well-known that Singapore-based NOL has been trying to sell APL for a long time, and there have been talks with OOCL and Hapag-Lloyd over a possible acquisition on that front, all to no avail.

So, once again assuming the COSCO/CSCL merger goes through, and CSCL joins the CKYHE Alliance, then either CMA-CGM or UASC will be prime targets to make an acquisition move that could possibly involve APL.

Meanwhile still sitting on the sidelines as far as the main East/West trade lanes are concerned is Hamburg-Sud, which remains in the slot purchaser slot on the Asia/Europe and Asia/US trade lanes.

According to industry sources, the latter is a scenario that cannot, and will not, continue.

By Paul Richardson

Sea Freight Correspondent | London