The Centre for Aviation (CAPA) said in a recent analysis that airlines in the United States could expect tough conditions in the early few months of the year — and despite optimism, it remains to be seen whether conditions will improve by the second half. 

"There is a general consensus/hope among the US’ three large global network airlines — American, Delta and United — that continued vaccine distribution and administration is a key catalyst for demand to start approaching historical levels," CAPA, one of the world's most trusted sources of market intelligence for the aviation industry said.

"But understandably there are nuances among those airlines regarding when a genuine and sustained uptick in demand will occur."

It noted that Delta, among the three, has the most optimistic view, "declaring that it could possibly return to profitability in the summer of 2021." American has not outlined a specific time period for a significant return in demand, while United Airlines believes the recovery will take the form of an "S curve," and believes some improvement could emerge in the second half of 2021.

CAPA said, however, for now, it remains to be seen what the next few months would look like for the industry.

"For now, the status quo of stalled demand remains as those operators brace for tough conditions throughout early 2021," CAPA said.

"It is still in the future to determine whether dynamics will in fact improve in the back half of the year," it added.