The vaccine supply chain could come under threat from cargo theft as roll out expands worldwide, according to a recent study released by international transport and logistics insurer, TT Club, and global provider of supply chain intelligence, BSI.

The report, which reflects whole year data from 2020, reported that thefts of cargo in transit remain the highest proportion of the total, all though its 71% share is already lower than the 87% seen in 2019.

It also noted that losses from warehouses and other storage facilities increase to 25% over the last year — and the food & beverage sector remains the biggest target of these cargo theft incidents at 31%.

With the coronavirus pandemic, TT Club and BSI warned that theft could also target much-needed PPEs, medicines and high-value vaccines as the rollout continues worldwide.

"An atypical year due to supply chain threats from the pandemic. These likely to be of continued concern well into 2021," the report said.

"New high-value targets created such as PPE, face masks and anti-bacterial gel and vaccine supply chain to come under threat as roll out expands."

Theft from storage facilities increase

The report said the most significant trend highlighted was the relative shift in the location of thefts, with "in-transit incidents and those involving vehicles showing a decline, though remaining the most dominant threat, and theft from storage facilities increasing."

The extent of the rise in the latter was variable from region to region however this trend was reflective of the disruption to supply chains brought about by radical changes to consumer buying patterns as a consequence of the pandemic, TT Club and BSI said.

“The effects throughout 2020 of the COVID crisis threatened supply chain security, continuity and resilience. Not only did newly created high-value commodities such as PPE become targets for theft but bottle-necks in the logistics infrastructure at ports and warehouses brought increased potential risks. Temporary overflow storage facilities added to the dangers in loosening the grip of existing security systems,” TT Club’s Managing Director, Loss Prevention, Mike Yarwood said.

Although specific incidents have not yet occurred, unless distribution plans for vaccines are perfectly executed within the expectations of any given population, challenges will arise in protecting the single most valuable cargo of all in the coming months, he added.

Regional cargo theft situation

In Europe, the report found that the stockpiling of goods meant these inventories came under particular threat with 48% of 2020 reported thefts coming from warehouses and production facilities. In 2019, only 18% came to such locations. On the other hand, 54% of incidents occurred in rest areas and parking sites in 2019 -- also recording a 19% from 2020.

"In Asia, the countries with the highest risk remain India, Indonesia, China and Bangladesh. The proportion of storage-based risk remains around 50% in Asia as a whole but in Southeast Asia, the in-transit risk indicates the prevalence of bribery and corruption with a high percentage of thefts being facilitated by employees and customs or other officials," TT Club and BSI said.

Meanwhile, the same report said North America continues to see theft coming almost exclusively in-transit via hijackings or directly from a parked vehicle.

It said the risk of social unrest, particularly in Mexico, arguably impacted the risk of cargo loss through most of last year — with significant disruption to the Mexican rail freight industry, which the study said created a backup of cargo across the country. This disruption led to estimated losses of close to US$4.4billion

"In South America, Brazil was a hotspot last year. A key driver of the high rates of cargo theft here remains the presence of major illegal drug smuggling gangs that need to fund their trafficking efforts. Again, the dominant risks were from hijacking and theft from or of vehicles," the report said, adding that these theft types accounted for 78% of the total losses reported.

The extreme rate of cargo theft, however, did drop for the first time in several years, as continued efforts by police and industry contributed to a slight decline in incidents in 2020.

Risks of cargo theft to persist in 2021

"In the coming year disruption and the uneven resumption of international trade resulting from the spread of COVID will continue with imbalances in shipping container distribution that are likely to impact maritime, and through a knock-on effect air cargo capacity throughout 2021," TT Club and BSI said.

"The added vulnerability of cargo will therefore continue."