Local air traders in Hong Kong are "conservatively optimistic" towards the development of international trade in the second quarter of the year, according to the findings of the latest DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI).
The report — released on April 20 — said the overall air trade outlook saw a "notable improvement" this quarter in the overall results across all areas, with "local air traders generally optimistic about the development of international trade."
The report said the index rose to 38.7, improving from the 31.8 seen in the first quarter. In the same period in 2020, the index dropped to 23.7, which was the lowest reading since the report was launched in 2014.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
"The overall air trade saw a considerable increase from the previous quarter, with both air imports and air (re-) exports also gaining improvements across multiple regions," the report said.
"Supported by the strong growth on imports and exports, Americas recorded the highest index among the regions. Asia Pacific, Europe and the Rest of the World also saw improvements this quarter."
The report noted that another noteworthy development is the "shipment urgency" attribute for Americas reaching the level of 50, which the DHL report noted is "the first time since mid-2018."
Growth in B2C transactions cited
"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect many parts of the world and has been changing the way people live. As a result, the B2C market has recorded a significant jump this quarter. Fewer local air traders have been reporting losses amid the pandemic. Those who have reported a balance finally overtook those who experienced loss, while the percentage of those who reported gains remains steady," the report said.
It also added that the food & beverage sector saw an increase this quarter and remains to be the best performing among the commodities, followed by watches, clocks & jewellery, which also saw a significant increase.
Indices for electronic products & parts; gifts, toys and houseware; as well as apparel and clothing accessories all saw improvements.
"Amid the tightening of the quarantine policy for aircrew in Hong Kong and the severe weather in Americas and Europe, 70% of local air traders still prefer bearing a higher cost than taking alternative measures, such as choosing export ports other than Hong Kong, lowering their trade volume or delaying shipments," the report found.
Commissioned by DHL Express Hong Kong and compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council, the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index is the first indicator of its kind in Hong Kong that aims to provide a forward-looking perspective on overall air export and import trade volumes.
Commenting on the result, Edmond Lai, chief digital officer of the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC), said improving conditions related to the coronavirus pandemic drove the market sentiment for the quarter.
"With COVID-19 showing signs of softening from its peak after the rolling out of vaccination programs since the start of the year, the world is foreseeing a better control of the pandemic moving forward," Lai said.
"This has made local air traders more optimistic about the economic outlook. To be in a position to make hay of the anticipated upturn, enterprises must work out a ‘resumption plan’ in advance, given the possible challenges from the market rebound on the supply chain operations, market capacity and logistics costs," he added, noting that digitalisation would remain a key in business operation.
The first quarterly DTI was released in Q2 2014 by analyzing the key attributes of business demand based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading.
