Sea Intelligence said the week-long Suez Canal blockage — which reportedly restricted the flow of at least 300 ships in the major waterway last March — has so far not shown any "noticeable" impact to the number of blank sailings as of the start of May.
The maritime analyst reported that based on its blank sailings tracker that it has been issuing since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, at present the carriers have made (and announced) 919 blank sailings on Transpacific and Asia-Europe throughout this period — covering week 28 in 2021.
"In early 2020, there was a spike in blank sailings announcements, as the initial coronavirus outbreak shut down China and then as it spread globally from March," Sea Intelligence said. "This was followed by an additional two spikes in May and August, although the August spike is more related to the anticipated seasonality for Golden Week."
The maritime analyst added: "At this point, however, the pattern changed, there were no more sharp spikes but a steady weekly flow of announced blank sailings, which now appears to be on an upwards trend."
Sea Intelligence noted that there was a large increase in the number of blank sailings in March as the pandemic spread, after which, there was a slight decline in Asia-NAWC.
During the summer, a peak of 178 was reached on Asia-NAWC, followed by a decline as sailings were essentially "un-blanked" due to the demand increase.
"A new pattern emerged in September 2020 with a steady level of blank sailings on both trades, resulting in a steady cumulative increase; a trend that is still in effect."
In its report, it added that there is a "similar early spike in blank sailings" in March on the two Asia-Europe trades, followed by a secondary spike in August 2020 — although it noted that there was "no stabilizing period in the late summer, and a similar 'steady growth' trend since September 2020, albeit with more week-to-week volatility."
Suez Canal blockage impact
"As is well known in the market, there is currently a shortage of vessel capacity driven by a variety of factors, such as port congestion, vessel crew with Covid, vessels struck with engine malfunctions, etc., all of which implies that at least a part of the blank sailings presently is the result of operational necessity – there is simply no other choice when a vessel is unavailable, and no replacement can be had," Sea Intelligence said.
"What is also clear from our analysis is that the temporary closure of the Suez Canal in March 2021 has not given rise to any noticeable change in the carriers’ pattern of blank sailings announcement behavior," it added.
