BIMCO, the largest shipping association, said global shipyards are under pressure and 2021 is turning out to bring the third lowest level of newbuilding orders in 12 years, despite new orders for containerships currently at a 14-year high.

In a statement, it said that seafarers are also under pressure during this time to keep world trade flow uninterrupted.

"The trading world merchant fleet had a capacity of 74,505 ships across 11 main segments ...  at the start of 2021. In the baseline scenario, the total fleet is projected to reach 79,282 by the end of 2025," BIMCO said.

It added that the expected demand for seafarers in the future is impacted by the forecasted growth in the world fleet. 

From 2021 onwards, BIMCO said it projects the fleet to have an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 1.25% in a baseline scenario until the start of 2026. The CAGR for the previous five years was 1.44%.

In a scenario where a weaker-than-the-baseline outlook for global trade is considered, BIMCO noted that the fleet will still grow — albeit at a slower pace — and is expected to have an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%.

"In the low growth scenario, there will be on average 567 ships entering the fleet every year, a significant decline from the baseline average of 955. With a brighter outlook for global trade, the world fleet is set to exceed 80,000 ships during 2025, with a set annual growth rate of 1.75%," it added.

LNG tanker fleet likely to grow the most

Meanwhile, BIMCO said the most substantial growth rate by any of the considered 11 segments during 2020 through 2025 will likely be the LNG tankers.

It said the LNG tanker fleet currently count 593 ships, and 85% of the fleet can be found within the cargo carrying capacity range of 100,000-200,000 cubic metres. 

BIMCO expects this fleet in the baseline scenario to have an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% and an end balance of 819 ships at the end of 2025.

Depending on the scenario, it said the fleet may vary between 799 ships in a low growth scenario, increasing to 839 ships in a high growth scenario.