Boeing has released its annual forecast for the commercial, defense and space aerospace market, reflecting signs of the industry's recovery following the impacts of COVID-19.
In its 2021 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) – Boeing's analysis of long-term market dynamics – the American airplane maker noted that the commercial airplanes and services are showing signs of recovery, while the global defense, space and government services markets have remained stable.
The BMO projects a US$9 trillion market over the next decade for aerospace products and services that Boeing addresses.
Boeing said the forecast is up from US$8.5 trillion a year ago, and up from US$8.7 trillion in the pre-pandemic 2019 forecast, reflecting the market's continued recovery progress.
"As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new global needs, we remain confident in long-term growth for aerospace," said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen. "We are encouraged by the fact that scientists have delivered vaccines more rapidly than imaginable and that passengers are demonstrating strong confidence in airplane travel."
Commercial market outlook
In its Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Boeing noted that the global market is recovering largely as Boeing projected in 2020.
Demand for domestic air travel is leading the recovery, with intra-regional markets expected to follow as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel's return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.
Within the Boeing Market Outlook, the CMO projects 10-year global demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes valued at US$3.2 trillion. Boeing's 20-year commercial forecast through 2040 projects demand for more than 43,500 new airplanes valued at US$7.2 trillion, an increase of about 500 planes over last year's forecast.
Increased demand for freighters
In a significant area of growth, projected demand has increased for dedicated freighters, including new and converted models, according to Boeing.
It added that with sustained demand for air cargo tied to expanding e-commerce and air freight's speed and reliability, the CMO projects the global freighter fleet in 2040 will be 70% larger than the pre-pandemic fleet.
"The aerospace industry has made important progress in the recovery, and Boeing's 2021 forecast reflects our confidence in the resilience of the market," said Stan Deal, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
"While we remain realistic about ongoing challenges, the past year has shown that passenger traffic rebounds swiftly when the flying public and governments have confidence in health and safety during air travel. Our industry continues to serve an essential role of bringing people together and transporting critical supplies."
