Boeing forecasts that China’s airlines will require 8,700 new airplanes by 2040, valued at US$1.47 trillion, to meet expanding commercial air travel demand.

In a statement, it said the 20-year forecast reflects the China market’s rebound and further evolution of its airline business models.

Boeing shared the China forecast as part of the 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.

"China’s economic fundamentals lay the foundation for healthy air traffic increases, including 4.4% annual economic growth and a middle-income demographic that will double by 2040," according to the CMO.

By 2030, it said China’s domestic passenger market will exceed intra-European traffic; by 2040, China’s domestic traffic is expected to also exceed air travel within North America.

"The rapid recovery of Chinese domestic traffic during the pandemic speaks to the market’s underlying strength and resilience," said Richard Wynne, managing director, China Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

"In addition, there are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity. Longer term, there is the potential for low-cost carrier growth to further build on single-aisle demand," Wynne added.

The 2021 China CMO also expects two-thirds of deliveries supporting China’s aviation industry growth and one-third of deliveries for fleet replacement, which will move airlines toward more sustainable, fuel-efficient airplane models.

Single-aisle jets account for nearly 6,500 deliveries; widebody deliveries, including passenger and cargo models, will total 1,850, accounting for 44% of demand by value.

According to the CMO, a nearly US$1.8 trillion commercial aviation services market opportunity exists in the region.