IATA: AIR CARGO UP 7.7% IN AUGUST VS. PRE-COVID LEVELS; CAPACITY LAGGING DEMAND
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released August 2021 data for global air cargo markets showing that demand continued its strong growth trend but pressure on capacity is rising.
It said global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), was up 7.7% compared to August 2019 (8.6% for international operations) and overall growth remains strong compared to the long-term average growth trend of around 4.7%.
The airline association noted that the pace of growth "slowed slightly" compared to July, which saw demand increase 8.8% (against pre-COVID-19 levels).
Meanwhile, cargo capacity recovery paused in August, down 12.2% compared to August 2019 (13.2% for international operations). In month-on-month terms, capacity fell by 1.6%, which it said is the largest drop since January 2021.
IATA noted that economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth but are slightly weaker than in the previous months indicating that global manufacturing growth has peaked.
"Air cargo demand had another strong month in August, up 7.7% compared to pre-COVID levels. Many of the economic indicators point to a strong year-end peak season. With international travel still severely depressed, there are fewer passenger planes offering belly capacity for cargo. And supply chain bottlenecks could intensify as businesses continue to ramp up production," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.
August Regional Performance
IATA said Asia-Pacific airlines saw their international air cargo volumes increase 3.0% in August 2021 compared to the same month in 2019 — which showed a "slowdown in demand" compared to the previous month's 4.4% expansion.
Demand is being affected by an easing in growth momentum in key activity indicators in Asia, and by congested supply chains especially on Within Asia and Europe-Asia routes. International capacity is significantly constrained in the region, down 21.7% vs. August 2019, IATA said.
For North American carriers, IATA said it saw an 18% increase in international cargo volumes in August 2021 compared to August 2019 as new export orders and demand for faster shipping times are underpinning the North American performance.
It said the downside risk from capacity constraints is high however; international cargo capacity remains restricted and many of the key air cargo hubs are reporting severe congestion, including Los Angeles and Chicago. International capacity decreased 6.6%.
European carriers saw a 6% increase in international cargo volumes in August 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was on a par with July's performance.
Middle Eastern carriers experienced an 15.4% rise in international cargo volumes in August 2021 versus August 2019, an improvement compared to the previous month (13.4%). IATA said the large Middle East-Asia trade lanes continue to post strong performance.
Meanwhile, Latin American carriers reported a decline of 14% in international cargo volumes in August compared to the 2019 period, which was the weakest performance of all regions.
It said capacity remains significantly constrained in the region, with international capacity decreasing 27.1% in August, the largest fall of any region.
African airlines saw international cargo volumes increase by 33.9% in August, the largest increase of all regions.
IATA said investment flows along the Africa-Asia route continue to drive the regional outcomes with volumes on the route up 26.4% over two years ago.
