The lockdown in Shanghai continues as China maintains its zero-tolerance Covid policy, but Sea-Intelligence said in a new report that the situation is not yet causing an impact on blank sailings compared to when Shenzhen was also placed on lockdown.
It noted that from a supply chain perspective, Shanghai is different than for example the lock-down in Yantian in 2021, as the port remains open and operational, whereas the problematic part relates to closed manufacturing sites and warehouses, as well as a reduction in available trucking capacity.
"We might therefore expect the situation to get worse in the coming weeks, and as such, we wanted to analyze which impact the lockdown has had on blank sailings," the maritime analyst said.
Removing the blank sailings on account of the Chinese New Year (CNY), Sea-Intel compared the blank sailings around the port closure of Yantian in 2021 and during the lockdowns in Shanghai in 2022 as a running two-week average.
"We can see that the number of blank sailings in 2022 was coming down from a more elevated level, whereas in the Yantian case in 2021, blank sailings increased as a consequence of the Covid impact," Sea-Intel said.
"This also implies that even though the level of blank sailings right now basically matches the number seen in 2021 following the Yantian impact, it cannot be concluded that the impact on the market is the same."
The maritime analyst added: "Quite the contrary, there has not yet been any material impact on blank sailings, beyond the normal state of affairs – to the degree than that market prior to the Shanghai lockdown can be called 'normal.'"
This is not to say, however, that there won't be an impact as Sea-Intel warned that further factory closing would drive blank sailings to begin in the coming weeks.
It noted that using the same methodology for other trades as well, it saw "no impact" on Asia-North America East Coast compared to the Yantian impact, whereas on Asia-Europe, the impact of the Shanghai lockdowns is very similar to that of Yantian in 2021.
"That said, it should however be clearly noted that we could still be in an early phase of the Shanghai lockdown, and if the factory closings persist, it is highly likely that the number of blank sailings will begin to increase in the coming weeks," Sea-Intelligence added.
