The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) said cutting emissions by 55% in 2030 is "achievable" although it will take up to €62 billion (US$64.55 billion) in investments from the European Union to make this happen.
In a Think Paper, EUROCONTROL — which is an international organisation working to achieve safe and seamless air traffic management across Europe — noted that its analysis is aligned with the planned policy proposals associated with the EU Green Deal as well as other initiatives from across Europe.
"We demonstrate that a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 is achievable ... but its success is heavily reliant on Market-Based Measures, mainly via the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which will make an 83% contribution to the net reduction," it said.
On the policy side, EUROCONTROL noted that it assessed the impact and the extra cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) uptake, the impact of ramping up kerosene taxes, and the phasing out of free emissions allowances.
"We estimate that the cumulative extra cost to the aviation industry over the period 2022-2030 of these decarbonisation measures will amount to €62 billion," the organization added, noting that this cost includes €29 billion (US$30.19B) in extra tax costs on kerosene (applied to intra-EEA flights); €23 billion (US$23.95B) in extra ETS costs (applied to EU + UK + Switzerland); and €10 billion (US$10.41B) in extra fuel mix costs (applied to all-ECAC States based on a 5% SAF / 95% kerosene mix).
"This is a challenging time for the European aviation industry, but the pathway to decarbonisation is attainable: aviation can cut CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, its success will rely very heavily on Market Based Measures. While implementing policy decarbonisation measures will create significant extra costs for airlines, improvements led by the aviation industry are capable of bringing the extra cumulative costs significantly down from €62 billion to €29 billion by 2030," said Eamonn Brennan, EUROCONTROL director general,