Eurocontrol: Decarbonisation measures up to 2030 will need US$64B investment

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EUROCONTROL: DECARBONISATION MEASURES UP TO 2030 WILL NEED US$64B INVESTMENT

May 12, 2022

The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) said cutting emissions by 55% in 2030 is "achievable" although it will take up to €62 billion (US$64.55 billion) in investments from the European Union to make this happen.

In a Think Paper, EUROCONTROL — which is an international organisation working to achieve safe and seamless air traffic management across Europe — noted that its analysis is aligned with the planned policy proposals associated with the EU Green Deal as well as other initiatives from across Europe.

"We demonstrate that a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 is achievable ... but its success is heavily reliant on Market-Based Measures, mainly via the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which will make an 83% contribution to the net reduction," it said.

On the policy side, EUROCONTROL noted that it assessed the impact and the extra cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) uptake, the impact of ramping up kerosene taxes, and the phasing out of free emissions allowances.

"We estimate that the cumulative extra cost to the aviation industry over the period 2022-2030 of these decarbonisation measures will amount to €62 billion," the organization added, noting that this cost includes €29 billion (US$30.19B) in extra tax costs on kerosene (applied to intra-EEA flights); €23 billion (US$23.95B) in extra ETS costs (applied to EU + UK + Switzerland); and €10 billion (US$10.41B) in extra fuel mix costs (applied to all-ECAC States based on a 5% SAF / 95% kerosene mix).

It added that the extra cost to the airline industry in 2030 alone is estimated at €14 billion (US$14.58B).

EUROCONTROL noted, however, that based on its analysis, it found that "industry-driven measures" are capable of playing a major part in achieving the required net emissions savings and offsetting the extra costs of decarbonisation.

It added that the positive impact of measures such as the implementation of the Single European Sky, other operational improvements and accelerated fleet renewal could drastically reduce the extra cost by €33 billion (US$34.36 billion) over the same period, lowering the cumulative cost to the industry to €29 billion (US$30.19 billion).

"This is a challenging time for the European aviation industry, but the pathway to decarbonisation is attainable: aviation can cut CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, its success will rely very heavily on Market Based Measures. While implementing policy decarbonisation measures will create significant extra costs for airlines, improvements led by the aviation industry are capable of bringing the extra cumulative costs significantly down from €62 billion to €29 billion by 2030," said Eamonn Brennan, EUROCONTROL director general,

"There is a pressing need to ramp up swiftly SAF production and usage enabling SAFs to compete with conventional kerosene. And if the sector returns to profitability, our High traffic scenario will drive increased revenues which will play a fundamental role in accelerating investment in new technology and thus driving the sustainability transformation."

"We need to accelerate aviation decarbonisation by prioritising actions, fostering the transition by inter alia offering financial support and encouraging alliances, and balancing taxation with the need for aviation to recover," the EUROCONTROL chief added.