The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced estimates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, noting that though volumes are growing, but the government needs to step up on crafting policies to incentivize the scaling-up of SAF production to meet future demand.
IATA said in 2023, SAF volumes reached over 600 million litres (0.5Mt), double the 300 million litres (0.25 Mt) produced in 2022.
SAF accounted for 3% of all renewable fuels produced, with 97% of renewable fuel production going to other sectors.
IATA said in 2024, SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875 billion litres (1.5Mt), accounting for 0.53% of aviation's fuel need and 6% of renewable fuel capacity.
The small percentage of SAF output as a proportion of overall renewable fuel is primarily due to the new capacity coming online in 2023 being allocated to other renewable fuels.
"The doubling of SAF production in 2023 was encouraging, as is the expected tripling of production expected in 2024. But even with that impressive growth, SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from 3% this year to 6% in 2024," said Willie Walsh, director-general at IATA.
He noted that this allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high.
"Aviation needs between 25% and 30% of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF. At those levels, aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation's decarbonization," Walsh added.
He noted that it is government policy that will make the difference.
"Governments must prioritize policies to incentivize the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally," Walsh, added.
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030.
Walsh noted that to reach this level, about 17.5 billion litres (14Mt) of SAF need to be produced.
"Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050. Having set an interim target in the CAAF process, they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production," he said.
"Demand is not the issue: Every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added US$756 million to a record-high fuel bill in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to using some 16.25 billion litres (13Mt ) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being announced regularly."
"Unlocking supply to meet demand is the challenge that needs to be solved: Projections are for over 78 billion liters (63Mt) of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivizes renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments," the IATA director-general added.
The IATA statement said effective production incentives for SAF should support the following objectives: accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies; ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities; focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production; and identifying and prioritizing high potential production projects for investment support.
It also needs to deliver a global SAF Accounting Framework and diversify SAF production by increasing production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.
