Global air cargo has yet to see any significant uplift from the recent disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
The air cargo market data provider noted, however, that there is likely to be some conversion of sea freight to air freight in the coming weeks if the disruptions continue.
Preliminary figures for the final week of 2023 indicate that tonnages in December were +5% above their level in December 2022, with the final two weeks of the year also showing a +5% uplift compared with last year.
[Source: WorldACD]
WorldACD noted that those figures confirm what WorldACD predicted last week, that the fourth quarter was the only quarter in 2023 showing positive growth (+3%) in tonnages compared to last year, following significant but gradually diminishing YoY declines in the first three quarters: Q1: -11%; Q2: -8%; Q3: -3%).
Whereas the first half of 2023 saw tonnages fall by 9%, YoY, the second half (H2) was characterized by an improving YoY performance for each consecutive month, closing with H2 flat compared to last year.
"This means that global tonnages for the full year 2023 ended up -5% lower than in 2022," WorldACD said in a report.
Preliminary figures for week 52 (December 25 to 31) show the typical end-of-year drop in global air cargo tonnages, with demand down by -25% compared with the previous week, while average worldwide rates remained stable — a slight improvement compared with the previous year, which showed a decline in average rates of -2% in the equivalent week.
WorldACD said comparing weeks 51 and 52 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages decreased 17%, and overall global average rates were down 7%, with capacity down 3%.
"While volumes went down significantly across all regions, the global decrease in average rates has mainly been driven by the origin region Asia Pacific (down 11%, 2Wo2W) — which had recently experienced a surge in rates, especially ex-China," the report added.
[Source: WorldACD]
On a regional level, almost all flows showed a double-digit percentage drop in tonnages, with only ex-Asia Pacific to Middle East & South Asia recording an increase of 3%.
Declines of 20% or higher were recorded on flows between North America and Europe (down 33% eastbound, down 25% westbound), between Asia Pacific and Europe (down 21% eastbound, down 20% westbound), between Central & South America and Europe (westbound down 28%, eastbound down 23%), ex-North America to Central & South America (down 26%), ex-Europe to Africa (down 26%), and ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (down 25%).
The report also noted "smaller but still double-digit decreases" observed between Asia Pacific and North America (westbound 18% decline, eastbound 15% down), between Middle East & South Asia and Europe (westbound decline of 12%, eastbound decline of 14%), intra-Asia Pacific (down 15%), ex-Africa to Europe (down 18%) and ex-Central & South America to North America (down 10%), on a 2Wo2W basis.
On the pricing side, WorldACD said the changes in the last two weeks show a mixed picture on a regional level.
It said the largest decreases were seen on flows ex-Asia Pacific to Europe and North America (down 13%) — which had both achieved significant recent increases — and ex-North America to Europe (down 11%).
Other notable decreases were observed in flows ex-Europe to North America (decline of 7%) and ex-Europe to Africa (decline of 6%).
Meanwhile, small average rate increases were recorded on flows ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (up 3%), ex-Africa to Europe (up2%), and ex-North America to Central & South America (up 1%), on a 2Wo2W basis.
Volumes, capacity up, rates down YoY
"Compared to this time last year, total global tonnages in weeks 51 and 52 were up 5%, YoY — driven by a 17% YoY increase ex-Asia Pacific and a 14% rise ex-Middle East & South Asia, with demand ex-Central & South America also strongly ahead of last year (up 7%)," WorldACD said.
It added that there remain significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America and ex-Europe (down 7%), YoY, although these are less severe than the deficits reported until the end of November, particularly ex-North America.
The report noted that worldwide average rates are currently 18% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.49 per kilo in week 52, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 39% compared to December 2019).
Overall available capacity has increased by 8% compared to last year, with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up by a noteworthy 19%.
WorldACD said most other regions also show significant YoY capacity increases, with a 9% rise ex-Middle East & South Asia, an 8% increase ex-Africa, a 6% capacity recovery ex-North America, and a 5% rise ex-Europe, with only a small (1%) rise ex-Central & South America.
