Sea Intelligence said the diversions of ocean carriers away from the Red Sea due to ongoing conflict in the area would push CO2 emissions higher.
In a new report, the Danish maritime analysis firm noted three elements to consider in this scenario: An increase in emissions due to longer sailing distances, potential increases due to faster sailing speeds (to maintain weekly departures), and if there is a shift from large vessels to smaller, less fuel-efficient vessels.
Using a proxy container service, Sea-Intelligence noted that the scale of these increases in CO2 emissions could be predicted.
"With the escalating Red Sea conflict, it is increasingly clear that we might be in it for the long haul, forcing shipping lines into round-of-Africa routings for the foreseeable future. A direct consequence of this is an increase in CO2 emissions," Sea Intelligence said.
The analysis noted that if the shipping lines use the exact same vessels at the exact same speed, then emissions increase on a 1:1 ratio with increased sailing distances.
As sailing distances around Africa are, on average, 31% and 66% longer for Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean, respectively, CO2 emissions will increase by these factors, at minimum.
If the vessels also sail faster, Sea-Intelligence said emissions will increase even further, as fuel consumption is not a linear function of sailing speed. As an example, based on our fuel consumption model, a 1 knot increase in speed from 16 to 17 knots will increase emissions by 14%.
"As shipping lines scramble to phase in additional capacity to cater for the longer sailing distance, we see smaller, less fuel-efficient vessels being deployed on Asia-Europe," commented Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
On a TEU basis, he added that some of these smaller vessels see an increase in CO2 emissions of 141% compared to conventional ULCVs.
"Putting all three components together could lead to CO2 emissions increases of 260% and 354% to North Europe and the Mediterranean, respectively," Murphy said.
"There is no realistic way to mitigate the increased emissions, at the very least those that are due to an increase in sailing distances," he added.
