Worldwide air cargo demand in January so far remains significantly up compared with this time last year, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, with tonnages from all the main global regions ahead of last year's figures with the exception of ex-North America traffic.
The air cargo market data provider noted that freight forwarders continue to report anecdotally that certain cargo owners are switching some Asia-Europe cargo from sea to air or to sea-air because of longer ocean voyages caused by the disruptions in the Red Sea.
WorldACD said, however, that from a data perspective, it is difficult to separate this traffic from the normal seasonal mid-January uplift following the New Year slowdown and from the effects of the Lunar New Year (LNY), with LNY in 2024 coming later (February 10) than last year (January 22).
[Source: WorldACD]
"Reflecting the serious disruptions to international container shipping, ocean freight spot rates from Asia to Europe are now around three times their level prior to the Red Sea disruptions, although air cargo rates remain relatively stable globally, and ex-Asia Pacific, compared with before the Red Sea crisis – although ex-Asia Pacific air cargo rates had already risen in the final quarter of last year due to seasonal and product-related demand factors," the analysis said.
It noted that some forwarders say that in anticipation of ocean-to-air conversions, they are blocking additional air capacity on core trade lanes to help customers keep their freight moving.
"Others note that the window for booking air freight ahead of Lunar New Year (February 10) is closing, and the next two to three weeks could be challenging, with the expectation of "bunched" container ships arriving en masse at the main European ports, potentially triggering port delays, driver shortages and cargo build-ups at warehouses, driving further traffic towards air cargo," WorldACD further said in its report.
Meanwhile, the air cargo market data provider added that preliminary figures for week 3 (January 15 to January 21) indicate that global air cargo tonnages rose by a further 5% compared with the previous week.
This follows a 25% rise in week 2, taking tonnages back up close to their levels in the third week of December and to around 90% of their peak levels in October and November.
WorldACD said average global prices bounced back slightly by 2% towards their levels at the start of this year.
Specific analysis by WorldACD does reveal week-on-week (WoW) increases in tonnages to Europe ex-China (up 4%) and ex-Hong Kong (up 9%).
[Source: WorldACD]
Demand, capacity up YoY
Year on year (YoY), overall global demand in weeks 2 and 3, combined, is up 6%, compared with the equivalent period last year, despite this period last year benefiting from the early Lunar New Year and the normal surge in air cargo traffic ahead of LNY factory closures in China.
WorldACD said the most striking YoY increase is the 21% figure for tonnages ex-Middle East & South Asia (at an additional 12% capacity), which may reflect some conversion of ocean freight to air and sea-air cargo due to the Red Sea disruptions.
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates of US$2.35 per kilo in week 3 are 22% below their elevated levels this time last year, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels or by 32% compared to January 2019.
"Overall worldwide air cargo capacity remains significantly up on last year's levels (up 12%), including double-digit percentage rises ex-Asia Pacific (up 29%), ex-Middle East & South Asia (up 12%) and ex-Central & South America (up 12%)," WorldACD said.
