Following successive weekly rises since the end of February, average global air cargo rates held steady in the second week of April — equaling their level in the equivalent week the previous year for the first time since mid-2022 — despite a drop in tonnages partly linked to Eid.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD, total worldwide tonnages fell by 3% in week 15 (April 8-14), with particularly big week-on-week (WoW) declines from predominantly Muslim countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and the UAE.
Average global rates remained flat in week 15 at US$2.52 per kilo, following consecutive weekly WoW rises of between 2% and 3% in the previous six weeks, equaling their level in week 15 last year and significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 40% compared to April 2019).
The report noted that average worldwide rates peaked at US$4.28 per kilo in late 2021 and mostly continued falling until the second half of last year, when they stabilized at around US$2.30 per kilo and recovered somewhat in the fourth quarter (Q4) last year, and again since late February 2024.
Eid effects on tonnages
"Air export tonnages from South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, remain high compared with their normal levels for this time of year, especially to European destinations, linked to strong demand developments combined with supply issues caused by disruptions to ocean shipping," WorldACD said.
"But a drop in bookings during the Eid holidays at the end of Ramadan led to some steep WoW falls in tonnages in week 15 ex-Pakistan (41% decline), Bangladesh (14% drop) and the UAE (29% decline) to worldwide destinations, along with other countries with big Muslim populations such as India (18% drop worldwide, and 16% decline to Europe destinations). Tonnages from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region overall to Europe also dropped by 18%, WoW, although they remain up by +17% compared with the same week last year," the air cargo market data provider added.
Despite the WoW drop, India-Europe tonnages remain up 9%, year on year (YoY), although Bangladesh to Europe demand is slightly down (5%), YoY.
Meanwhile, the report noted that Sri Lanka to Europe tonnages were up on both a WoW (8%) and YoY (26%) basis in week 15. And despite a 21% WoW drop, Dubai-Europe tonnages remained at more than twice their level this time last year, up by 153%, in the week prior to flooding there, impacting the emirate’s air operations.
High MESA-Europe spot rates
WorldACD said its analysis also reveals that despite the WoW dip in demand from various MESA countries, including Europe, air cargo spot rates from that region to Europe remain extremely high by historical standards.
"Indeed, MESA to Europe spot rates as a whole are more than double (122%) their level this time last year, with India-Europe spot rates still averaging more than US$4 a kilo in week 15 (US$4.05/kg) despite a 2% WoW drop, leaving them up by 174% compared with week 15 last year," the report said.
"Bangladesh-Europe spot rates edged up slightly further in week 15 to US$4.61 a kilo (176%, YoY). Meanwhile, Sri Lanka-Europe prices are up 53%, YoY, with Dubai-Europe spot prices 33% above week 15 last year," WorldACD added.
