Following Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel and Israel's retaliatory strike, the tension between the two may be easing, according to a new analysis by Freightos, and this may decrease the risk of additional Iranian vessel seizures in the Strait of Hormuz for now.
The booking and payments platform for international freight noted that Iran continues to hold the MSC-operated Aries and its crew, meaning that several hundred India-bound loaded containers will not arrive any time soon, and several thousand export containers waiting to depart from India on the Aries may face delays as well.
This new threat may result in higher insurance costs for India-Middle East shipments, and an escalation of Iran's actions in the strait would likely impact regional container trade operationally and in terms of higher freight rates.
"... and if container flows to Dubai were affected, sea-air traffic through the key UAE hub would also be disrupted — so far, there are no additional reports of disruptions and Freightos Terminal rate data ex-India shows no effect either."
Ocean rates beyond the Middle East and S. Asia were not impacted by this latest disruption either.
Freightos said ex-Asia prices decreased somewhat or were level last week and remain well below their early-year peaks.
However, Asia-N. America rates remain 90% higher than in 2019 for the West Coast and 60% higher for the East Coast, at about US$3,000/FEU and US$4,300/FEU, respectively, as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity and make blank sailings rare even during these slow-season months.
Likewise, Asia-N. Europe and Mediterranean prices are each more than double 2019 levels. Rate announcements for May show some carriers aim to keep prices at about their current US$3,300/FEU and US$4,300/FEU levels, respectively.
Others plan to introduce GRIs to try and push N. Europe rates up to US$4,500/FEU and Mediterranean prices up to $5,600/FEU.
Freightos said the Panama Canal Authority announcement that it will further ease low-water restrictions as rainfall increases will increase daily transits to 31 by mid-May and to 32 starting in June — just below the pre-drought norm of 36.
"... and for the first time since restrictions were introduced almost a year ago, they will increase the maximum draft level from 13.41m to 13.71m in mid-June," the report added.
In air cargo, Freightos noted that the severe storm which caused flooding in Dubai last week led to a 24-hour closure of the airport and 300 cancelled flights, though operations were expected to recover quickly.
Meanwhile, Freightos said that B2C e-commerce volumes continue to be the big driver of demand and worries about available capacity out of China, especially late in the year during the air's peak season.
Freightos Air Index rates ex-China remained elevated last week at US$5.18/kg to North America and US$3.55/kg to Europe.
"Some carriers are taking steps to add capacity in response, including CMA CGM's newly announced transpacific service, which will launch in June, though capacity is still expected to get even tighter in Q4," the new report said.
