Asia is ramping up its infrastructure investment plans for what some call the revival of the Silk Routes that existed between Asia and Europe 1,000 years ago. “These new connections are being formed by hard infrastructure like roads, railroads, ports and so forth that could deepen integration and expand prosperity,” says William Simon, chair in political economy and senior adviser for Asian Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a public policy research institution in Washington dedicated to analysis and policy. “These also have potential to reconfigure relationships, reroute the flows of goods and people, and shift power within states.
Matthew Goodman, senior adviser for Asian economics at CSIS, writes: “Inevitably, many of today’s ambitious infrastructure projects in Asia will fail. But if even a fraction succeeds, the consequences could echo well beyond the region. Fundamental shifts in the global economic order rarely occur overnight. In Asia, that order is being remade a bit each day – rail tie by rail tie, lane by lane.”
But a number of questions arise about the feasibility of the underlying projects which face obstacles as big and diverse as the region itself. In a world where 90% of freight currently travels by sea, Goodman asks: “Can new overland routes compete? Beyond physical terrain, can these goods successfully navigate difficult political and legal terrain? With hard infrastructures in place, will soft infrastructures – customs and border procedures, for example – be adequate to facilitate trade and commerce?”
These are important questions. The routes cover a region that contains over a third of the world’s landmass and more than half of global gross domestic product (GDP), Goodman says. “These new routes are reshaping economic and geopolitical realities across Eurasia.”
Consequently, CSIS has embarked on a new initiative called Reconnecting Asia. Central to the initiative is an ambitious and interactive micro-website dedicated to analyzing and mapping new roads, railways, ports, and other infrastructure projects in a geographic area Goodman calls the new routes that revive the ancient Silk Road between Asia and Europe.
Reconnecting Asia is trying to tackle the multitude of questions that are arising by first trying to understand what is going on on the ground. An interactive map on the project’s website – ReconnectingAsia.csis.org – enables experts and non-experts alike to visualize and explore emerging connections.
“We started by tracking over 1,600 roads, railways, and ports to show how these projects fit within existing and emerging networks,” Goodman says. “The website allows you to dig deeper and see what’s happening on the ground.” Goodman sees the CSIS project as being critical because efforts underway in Eurasia involve a third of the world’s land mass and half of the world’s GDP.
Elizabeth Wishnick, professor of political science at Montclair State University in New Jersey, points out that the website offers a different perspective and multiple views on the projects that are connecting Asia. “Some have been seen before, some have not,” she remarks. “Some cross borders.”
In a panel discussion at CSIS headquarters in Washington, various views from the website were reviewed, indicating the depth of the project. Goodman suggested considering a few ambitious plans underway. Specifically, he pointed to China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) project, which stretches from east to west, and envisions a future in which all roads lead to Beijing. Including both maritime and overland components, OBOR aims to reach not only Europe, but also Africa and Latin America. All told, OBOR could touch some 65 countries with roughly 70% of the world’s population.
“There are early signs of progress on the ground,” Goodman says. “As of mid-year, 39 railways between China and Europe were operational. In September, a cargo train completed the first trip from China to Afghanistan.”
According to Goodman, Russian officials have welcomed China’s efforts in their backyard, even suggesting that China’s OBOR could be linked with the Eurasian Economic Union. Additionally, Russia aims to increase connectivity with Azerbaijan, Iran, and India through the North-South Transport Corridor. The route, he says, could cut transit costs by 30% and time by 40% from today’s 40-day maritime journey.
“It will take a major step forward in the coming months when Iran and Azerbaijan’s railways are connected for the first time,” Goodman reports.
Jonathan Hillman, director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, emphasizes that such infrastructure projects are not only windows into society. “Many of them are reshaping society, moving people, goods, data and ideas faster and further than ever before,” he says. “That is especially true in Asia where a new order is emerging. In the long run, economic factors will determine whether or not these projects are viable. But implications extend beyond economics. New patterns of trade transform economic activity give way to new political realities.”
By Karen E. Thuermer
Correspondent | Washington
