The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air cargo markets showing that demand increased in February despite a challenging operating backdrop.
The air cargo organization said several factors benefitted air cargo in February compared to January including the pick up in manufacturing activity after the early February Lunar New Year holiday.
Meanwhile, capacity was positively influenced by the general and progressive relaxation of COVID-19 travel restrictions, reduced flight cancellations due to Omicron-related factors (outside of Asia), and fewer winter weather operational disruptions.
Uncertainties loom
In its report, IATA said global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), was up 2.9% compared to February 2021 (2.5% for international operations).
Adjusting the comparison for the impact of the Lunar New Year (which can cause volatility in reporting) by averaging January's and February's performance, demand increased 2.7% year-on-year. While cargo volumes continued to rise, the growth rate decelerated from the 8.7% year-on-year expansion in December.
Capacity was 12.5% above February 2021 (8.9% for international operations). While this is in positive territory, compared to pre-COVID-19 levels capacity remains constrained, 5.6% below February 2019 levels.
"The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine had limited effect globally on February's performance as it occurred very near the end of the month. The negative impacts of war and related sanctions (particularly higher energy costs and reduced trade) will become more visible from March," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director-General.
"Demand for air cargo continued to expand despite growing challenges in the trading environment. That is not likely to be the case in March as the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine take hold. Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainty will take their toll on air cargo," Walsh added.
February regional performance
During the period, IATA said Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase 3% in February 2022 compared to the same month in 2021 while available capacity in the region was up 15.5% compared to February 2021.
IATA said however it remains heavily constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, down 14.6% compared to February 2019.
"The zero-COVID policy in mainland China and Hong Kong is impacting performance," it added.
North American carriers saw a 6.1% increase in cargo volumes in February 2022 compared to February 2021. IATA said the ramp-up of manufacturing activity in China following the end of the Lunar New Year resulted in growth in Asia's North American market, with seasonally-adjusted volumes rising by 4.3% in February. Capacity was up 13.4% compared to February 2021.
European carriers saw a 2.2% increase in cargo volumes in February 2022 slower than the previous month (6.4%), partially attributable to the war in Ukraine which started at the end of the month.
"Seasonally adjusted demand on the Asia-Europe route, one of the most affected by the conflict decreased by 2.0% month on month. Capacity was up 10.0% in February 2022 compared to February 2021, and down 11.1% compared to pre-crisis levels (2019)," IATA said.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 5.3% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in February which IATA said was the weakest performance of all regions, which was owing to a deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America.
"Looking forward, there are signs of improvement as data indicate that the region is likely to benefit from traffic being redirected to avoid flying over Russia," IATA noted, adding that capacity was up 7.2% compared to February 2021.
Latin American carriers reported an increase of 21.2% in cargo volumes — the strongest performance of all regions. Capacity in the region was up 18.9% year-on-year.
African airlines saw cargo volumes increase by 4.6% during the period and capacity was 8.2% above the level seen during the same period in 2021.