Despite a fragile global trade outlook, business sentiment remains strikingly resilient. DP World’s new Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026 shows that 94% of surveyed executives expect trade growth in 2026 to match or surpass 2025 levels, even as geopolitical frictions and market volatility continue to rise.
The findings are based on a survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
In total, 54% expect trade growth to be faster than 2025 and 40% expect it to be equal. This is despite 53% anticipating high or very high policy uncertainty, 90% expecting trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged.
Meanwhile, only 25% expect a negative impact on their business, with 49% expecting no effect and 26% even seeing a positive impact.
DP World said this sentiment contrasts with some macro projections, with the IMF forecasting trade growth (by volume) could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025.
Asked where trade growth potential is greatest in 2026, executives most frequently pointed to Europe (22%) and China (17%), followed by Asia Pacific (14%) and North America (13%).
"Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably," said Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World.
The GTO Annual Outlook was developed with Geneva-based insights agency, Horizon Group.
Margareta Drzeniek, managing partner, Horizon Group, said: "What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance.”
The survey shows that companies are responding to volatility by redesigning supply chains and trade routes with a focus on resilience and agility. Supplier diversification (51%), higher inventories (44%), and friend‑shoring (36%) are among the most common strategies planned for 2026. At the same time, 26% of respondents intend to use new routes and 23% are evaluating alternatives, driven by cost savings (38%), improved connectivity and inland infrastructure (36%), and faster customs clearance (35%).
Yet border friction remains a significant choke point, with 60% citing customs procedures as a leading cause of delays. To address this, executives are prioritizing investment in warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and border and customs processing infrastructure (36%).
The DP World Global Trade Observatory (GTO) is a data- and insights-led platform designed to provide decision-makers with actionable intelligence on the forces reshaping global trade, grounded in research including a proprietary survey of 3,500 supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries. Research was conducted in November 2025 with Geneva-based insights agency Horizon Group.
