The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 77th Annual General Meeting approved a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This commitment will align with the Paris Agreement goal for global warming not to exceed 1.5°C.
“The world’s airlines have taken a momentous decision to ensure that flying is sustainable. The post-COVID-19 re-connect will be on a clear path towards net zero. That will ensure the freedom of future generations to sustainably explore, learn, trade, build markets, appreciate cultures and connect with people the world over. With the collective efforts of the entire value chain and supportive government policies, aviation will achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
In a statement, IATA noted that achieving net zero emissions will be a huge challenge.
It said the aviation industry must progressively reduce its emissions while accommodating the growing demand of a world that is eager to fly. To be able to serve the needs of the ten billion people expected to fly in 2050, at least 1.8 gigatons of carbon must be abated in that year. Moreover, the net zero commitment implies that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatons of carbon will be abated between now and 2050.
A key immediate enabler is the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). This will stabilize international emissions at 2019 levels in the short-to-medium term. Support for this was reaffirmed in today’s resolution.
Industry-wide Collective Efforts
IATA said the path from stabilizing emissions to emissions reductions will require a collective effort.
“Achieving sustainable global connectivity cannot be accomplished on the backs of airlines alone. All parts of the aviation industry must work together within a supportive government policy framework to deliver the massive changes that are needed, including an energy transition. That is no different than what we are seeing in other industries. Road transport sustainability efforts, for example, are not being advanced by drivers building electric vehicles. Governments are providing policies and financial incentives for infrastructure providers, manufacturers and car owners to be able to collectively make the changes needed for a sustainable future. The same should apply to aviation,” Walsh said.
The strategy is to abate as much CO2 as possible from in-sector solutions such as sustainable aviation fuels, new aircraft technology, more efficient operations and infrastructure, and the development of new zero-emissions energy sources such as electric and hydrogen power.
IATA said any emissions that cannot be eliminated at source will be eliminated through out-of-sector options such as carbon capture and storage and credible offsetting schemes.
“We have a plan. The scale of the industry in 2050 will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatons of carbon. A potential scenario is that 65% of this will be abated through sustainable aviation fuels. We would expect new propulsion technology, such as hydrogen, to take care of another 13%. And efficiency improvements will account for a further 3%. The remainder could be dealt with through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). The actual split, and the trajectory to get there, will depend on what solutions are the most cost-effective at any particular time. Whatever the ultimate path to net zero will be, it is absolutely true that the only way to get there will be with the value chain and governments playing their role,” Walsh added.
The resolution demands that all industry stakeholders commit to addressing the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities with concrete actions and clear timelines including fuel-producing companies bringing large scale, cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to the market and governments and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) eliminating inefficiencies in air traffic management and airspace infrastructure.
Airport operators are also sought to provide the needed infrastructure to supply SAF, at cost, and in a cost-effective manner.
The role of government
IATA noted that the energy transition needed to achieve net zero must be supported by a holistic government policy framework focused on realizing cost-effective solutions. This is particularly true in the area of SAF.
It said "technology exists, but production incentives are needed to increase supply and lower costs."
The resolution calls on governments through ICAO to agree a long-term goal equivalent to the industry’s net zero by 2050 commitment.
“Governments must be active partners in achieving net zero by 2050. As with all other successful energy transitions, government policies have set the course and blazed a trail towards success. The costs and investment risks are too high otherwise. The focus must be on reducing carbon,” Walsh added, noting that incentives are the proven way forward.
Milestones cited
By 2025, with appropriate government policy support, SAF production is expected to reach 7.9 billion liters (2% of total fuel requirement), IATA said.
By 2030: SAF production is 23 billion liters (5.2% of total fuel requirement). ANSPs have fully implemented the ICAO Aviation System Block Upgrades and regional programs such as the Single European Sky and by 2035: SAF production is 91 billion liters (17% of total fuel requirement). Electric and/or hydrogen aircraft for the regional market (50-100 seats, 30-90 min flights) become available.
Meanwhile, by 2040 SAF production is targeted to be 229 billion liters (39% of total fuel requirement) while hydrogen aircraft for the short-haul market (100-150 seats, 45-120 min flights) become available.
By 2045, it said SAF production is 346 billion liters (54% of total fuel requirement) until 2050 when SAF production hits 449 billion liters (65% of total fuel requirement).
“SAF will fuel the majority of aviation’s global emissions mitigation in 2050. The recently announced US Grand challenge to increase the supply of SAF to 11 billion liters (3 billion gallons) by 2030 is a great example of the kinds of policies that will drive aviation sustainability,” Walsh said.
