Drewry said in a new analysis that switching to green e-methanol would raise bunker costs by 340%.
It said that this would mean an extra cost of US$1,047 per 40ft container from Asia to Europe.
"Following the cost forecasts publicised by Drewry two weeks ago, which have been widely circulated across the industry, we have revised and expanded our forecasts of estimated future container shipping costs for different fuel types," the international provider of research and consulting services to the maritime and shipping industry said, noting that in this exercise, the accounting of the costs is complex.
"A higher price for green e-methanol and a full price for grey methanol plus green certificates, as well as a lower Emission Trading Scheme allowance cost of €100 per tonne of CO2, must be considered," Drewry said.
It added that with this, Drewry has arrived at even higher cost implications for shippers.
"Without switching to greener fuel, the estimated bunker and fuel-related carbon tax cost for a 40ft container from Asia to Europe will increase by 35% by 2026," Drewry said.
"At the other end of the scale, if adopting green e-methanol (methanol produced using green energy), the cost increase would be about 350% (based on available cost data, which is subject to uncertainty given the lack of scale and experience of this new fuel)," it further said, adding that "this would mean an extra cost of $1,047 per 40ft container from Asia to Europe."
"For green e-methanol, we are now assuming a price of US$1,200/tonne (equivalent to about US$2,400/tonne of VLSFO for the same energy)," the analysis said.
Drewry signalled that the growing question is whether the industry can voluntarily adopt to green fuels, given the huge cost premium, which is now becoming clearer.
"Because the cost differential is so big, governments and policymakers will have to adopt stronger or even more compulsory rules to force the change if they want to achieve green shipping," it said.
Meanwhile, the report noted that last week, Europe's Parliament and Council reached a deal on cleaner maritime fuels, asking to cut ship emissions by 2% as of 2025 and by 80% as of 2050 to help the European Union become climate neutral.
Drewry said it will continue to monitor these regulatory trends and advise BCOs and shipper customers on these complex matters.
