Sea-Intelligence noted that this is now the fourth month where the global collapse in demand "can be said to have halted," citing June demand figures released by the Container Trade Statistics (CTS).
The Danish maritime data analysis firm said from a supply chain perspective, however, we also need to account for the travelled distances, hence why we prefer to measure demand in TEU*Miles.
"Even though the demand collapse in TEU*Miles halted in February 2023, it cannot be said to have rebounded, as the growth rate is essentially hovering around zero," Sea-Intelligence said.
"It could be questioned whether there was a genuine collapse in demand or whether it was simply an artifact of a skewed year-on-year calculation."
"However, even when we make an annualised comparison with 2019 (the last pre‑pandemic year), we effectively see the same results. Of course, seen from the carriers' financial perspective, it is the demand growth in the head-haul trades which is the most important element to global demand growth," the Danish maritime data analysis firm said.
[Source: Sea-Intelligence]
Sea-Intelligence noted that, based on Figure 1 shown, the growth in global head-haul demand.
"Here, again, we see how the collapse in demand has been clearly halted, and even though it is at a low level, the year-on-year demand growth has been positive for three consecutive months now," commented Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
"But, as we have also seen in previous months' issues of the Sunday Spotlight, global development is certainly not uniform across different deep-sea trades," he added.
Murphy went on to note that Europe imports continue to rebound while exports continue to decline, which means a worsening trade balance and hence lower utilisation on exports and downward pressure on freight rates.
"For North American imports, the demand collapse is showing weak signs of abating, while exports are also in negative territory. This points towards an improved trade balance for North America," the Sea-Intelligence chief added.
