Ocean rates were stable overall last week over the tail end of the Lunar New Year holiday period, and the Red Sea diversions are keeping prices elevated though they have begun to come down from their peaks, according to a new analysis by Freightos.

The online freight market noted that Asia-North Europe rates of US$4,553/FEU are down 17% from their mid-January high, and Asia-Mediterranean prices of US$5,224/FEU are 23% lower than a month ago.

Rates from Asia to North America have also started to ease slightly.

"Though post-LNY backlogs may be keeping rates at these elevated levels for now, prices are likely to decline from the current levels as ocean freight enters its slow season in the coming weeks," said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.

"... while rates should remain above normal levels as long as diversions continue and carriers pass on higher costs, the European Shipping Council estimates that ocean rates and surcharges for Red Sea diversions are far outstripping these increased costs faced by carriers," he added, noting that this assessment, together with pessimistic outlooks for European ocean volumes this year, also points to the likelihood of ocean prices coming down from current levels. 

The analysis also noted that the diversions' impact on capacity, equipment availability and ocean prices for non-Red Sea lanes may have reached its peak as well.

It noted that Transatlantic rates have increased 54% since mid-December to $1,862/FEU last week.

"But carriers may not be expecting diversions and market conditions to allow rates to climb much more, as some are postponing additional planned surcharges," Freightos said.

In air cargo, though rates out of Asia and the Middle East were level or easing on most lanes last week, the report said Freightos Air Index data shows China - N. America prices rebounded to US$4.80/kg, about its level in mid-January.

"This climb may reflect some increase in demand from shipments that did not get moved before the Lunar New Year," commented Levine.

Meanwhile, the online freight marketplace said despite assessments that US and UK strikes have "significantly degraded Houti capabilities", Red Sea attacks — including a missile strike on a bulk carrier that resulted in an oil spill have continued.

It noted that the US and UK strikes on Houthi positions continued last week as well, and the US Federal Maritime Commission is considering implementing maritime sanctions on Yemen as an additional measure.

Freightos said for vessels still transiting the Red Sea, insurance premiums continue to rise.