Air Charter Service (ACS) sees the elections in many parts of the world as the biggest risk to the aviation sector this year as it looks at what might be expected in the private charter industry in 2024.
"The biggest thing that may affect the market this year is that more than half the world’s population will be heading for the polls over the next 12 months," commented Andy Christie, group private jet director at ACS, adding that this will mean both politicians trying to boost economies in the run-up to elections, but coupled with uncertainty around long term projects pending the results of the polls.
"The US economy in Q4 will certainly be affected by the November 5th Presidential election," ACS said.
Meanwhile, the announcement noted that another major concern this year is the increasing volatility in the Middle East, despite the surge in entertainment being driven by Saudi Arabia.
The fragile nature of the current environment and potential effect on oil prices could derail the economic outlook, which would have a far wider reach than just the local markets.
"Obviously, there will be regional variations. In Asia, I expect the Chinese private jet market to continue thriving after it really picked up again last year, Long-range flights to Europe and the US became more popular, and we expect this market to remain strong as long as the geopolitical landscape remains stable."
The announcement said the southern hemisphere markets of South America, Africa and Australasia made a quicker recovery post-COVID than some economies and will likely continue to develop in the year ahead.
"The US market shrank by around 4% last year, but is still more than 20% up on pre-pandemic figures. In 2023 European flights saw an 8% decrease compared to 2022, but that number is still 7% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. We think that private jet levels will remain similar this year, staying ahead of 2019’s numbers," ACS said.
It added that a "potentially strong summer" may be limited by pilot shortages, as well as a lack of parts, both of which are still an issue for airlines, including the larger charter companies in the major aviation hubs, which could further impact the number of airlines and aircraft available on the market.
"We don’t think capacity should be too much of a limiting factor for the rest of the year however, should it be, it may present an opportunity for us, as we would expect to be approached to source replacement capacity from the global market," Christie said.
"There are so many economic and political factors that are likely to affect 2024, that it is very difficult to make firm predictions. Overall, we think that flight levels will remain relatively flat, year-on-year, potentially with a slight increase in the first half of the year, but this is likely to be offset by a decline in the second half as the uncertainty of elections potentially putting the decisions on long term projects on hold," the statement added.
