The average size of container ships is expected to increase as larger ships continue to dominate the order book.
In this week's "Shipping Number of the Week," BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen looked at the size of container ships, which continues to increase.
He said that today, just 626 ships provide 36% of the fleet's capacity, and the trend is set to continue as the large ships dominate the order book.
Rasmussen estimates that at the end of 2025, the average container ship could be larger than 5,000 TEU and that two segments will contribute more than 40% of the fleet’s capacity.
Ships above 12,000 TEU drive increase in average ship size
"Since 2006, the average container ship has doubled in size to 4,580 TEU and ships with a capacity of more than 12,000 TEU has accounted for 51% of the fleet’s capacity expansion," he said.
Today, just 626 ships provide 36% of the fleet's capacity, and the trend is set to continue as the large ships dominate the order book," he added.
In a statement, BIMCO noted that when the Emma Maersk was delivered in August 2006, the ship was by far the largest container ship in the world. It is 400 metres long, 56 metres wide and has a capacity of about 17,800 (14,000 TEU when delivered).
The previously largest ship had a capacity of 9,500 TEU and was delivered just two months earlier.
"In 2006, there were not many indications that Emma Maersk signalled a revolution that continues to dominate container shipping today. The only ships on the order of a similar size were Emma's seven sister ships," Rasmussen said.
He noted that, in fact, it was another six years before the ninth similarly sized ship was delivered.
"However, eventually, a new category of container ships was born, the Post Panamax. Too large to fit even the new Panama Canal locks which opened in 2016, they have a capacity of more than 17,000 TEU. The very largest today has a capacity of 24,000 TEU," BIMCO's chief shipping analyst added.
Rasmussen went on to note that a smaller ship type developed alongside the very largest — known as Neo Panamax and can transit the new Panama Canal locks with a capacity of 12,000-17,000 TEU.
"The Neo Panamax and Post Panamax ships have contributed significant reductions in both cost and greenhouse gas emissions compared to smaller ships. Compared to a 10,500 TEU ship, the very largest ships cost 25% per TEU less to build and bunker consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are also 25% lower per TEU," says Rasmussen.
The very large ships have also meant that service frequencies have not developed as they otherwise would have.
Still, the BIMCO executive said that as the fleet now consists of 68% more ships than in 2006, liner operators have still been able to expand service frequency and coverage even when factoring in the fact that sailing speeds have reduced significantly during the period.
"Neo Panamax and Post Panamax ships contribute nearly 70% of the capacity on order, and they will continue to drive growth in the fleet," Rasmussen said.
"We estimate that at the end of 2025, the average container ship will be larger than 5,000 TEU, and the two segments will contribute more than 40% of the fleet's capacity," he added.
