The global supply chain's complete decoupling with China is "virtually impossible," according to a new report from GlobalData, noting the country's existing manufacturing infrastructure and its massive investments in digital and clean energy technologies.
The data and analytics firm said the "era of easy, frictionless supply chains is over," and in a post-pandemic world, companies had to adopt a just-in-case strategy for their supply chains, where hoarding inventory offered a safety net for unforeseen supply chain disruptions.
"However, reworking supply chains is complex and expensive, with no quick fixes. As the world's manufacturing hub, China controls many global supply chains," GlobalData added.
Its study, “Thematic Intelligence: Supply Chain Disruption”, explores how companies can improve supply chain resilience by relocating production closer to home, diversifying their supply chain, digitalizing their networks, and adopting a circular economy model.
Carolina Pinto, thematic Analyst at GlobalData, said supply chain disruptions are becoming worse and more frequent.
"These disruptions are exacerbated by geopolitical fractures, climate change, and demographic changes. However, it is trade restrictions that are primarily driving the reshoring efforts," she added.
The study noted that from materials to end products, Chinese suppliers are not only major producers of consumer goods and electronics, but China also dominates the solar panels, batteries, and 5G infrastructure industries.
It added that strong economic growth and other developments had changed some of the factors that first made China an attractive manufacturing destination, namely: China no longer has the scale of cheap labour it once had; China has a shrinking population, and China is a major target of decoupling efforts.
The report said the US-China trade war is increasing the regulatory and reputational risks of doing business in China.
More and more companies are also relocating their manufacturing to countries that carry less geopolitical risk.
"The Chinese government's long-term plan to make China self-sufficient anticipated the importance of emerging technologies to the future global economy and invested billions in digital and clean energy technologies. A fast and cost-effective energy transition will still rely heavily on Chinese supply chains," Pinto said.
Alternatives to China
GlobalData noted that companies must assess the best destination for relocating production and finding new suppliers to decouple from China and build supply chain resilience.
It said that depending on a country's physical infrastructure, workforce, and existing industrial environment, a company can choose to move supply chain operations back to its home country, a nearby country, or a politically and economically allied country.
"Both Western governments and the Chinese government are heavily subsidizing reshoring efforts of critical industries. However, high production costs and severe labour shortages make reshoring for Western companies a costlier process," Pinto said.
The report noted that Western companies are more likely to nearshore or friendshore, meaning they move supply chain operations closer to the final consumer but not back to the home country.
This can reduce the cost of transportation while complying with trade restrictions and avoiding high labour costs.
"Latin America is a promising nearshoring location for many US tech companies. Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico have strong engineering talent with expertise in the cloud, AI, and cybersecurity," Pinto said.
"Companies outsourcing to Latin America can benefit from a large pool of talent, low labour costs due to lower average wages and very high inflation, and proximity to the US," she added.
