The US consumer spending data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that there has not been a sudden boom in consumer spending, lending support to the notion that the early peak season for container goods is driven by front-loading of imports and not a sign of consumer spending surge.

A new Sea-Intelligence analysis noted that the year-on-year (Y/Y) growth in spending across 'durable goods' sharply dropped in the early part of 2024. While it has been recovering again, it is not yet back to the same growth level as in 2023.

[Source: Sea-Intelligence]

Citing Figure 1, Sea-Intelligence said that at the highest level, data is separated into 'goods' and 'services'. 'Goods are further divided into 'durable goods' and 'non-durable goods.' Figure 1 shows the Y/Y growth in both 'durable goods' and 'non-durable goods' for the last three years.

In the case of 'non-durable goods,' the Danish maritime consultancy firm noted that the growth rate has been steadily increasing since the end of 2022.

"What is, however, abundantly clear here is that there has not been a sudden surge in consumer spending in late spring/early summer 2024,"  commented Alan Murphy, chief executive officer at Sea-Intelligence. 

He noted that, furthermore, the only sub-section of 'goods' showing any significant increase in consumer spending share is 'recreational goods and vehicles,' with the share of total goods spending increasing from an average of 10.2% in 2019 to 15.1% in June 2024.

"Looking into the components under this sub-section, we find that the major driver of this growth is 'information processing equipment', and more specifically 'computer software and accessories,'" Murphy added.

"Since these components do not move in containers, this boost to consumer spending in the 'goods' sector does not benefit container shipping," he added.