With China's Golden Week holiday approaching from October 1–7, Sea-Intelligence is warning shippers to brace for a wave of last-minute blank sailings, particularly on Transpacific trade lanes.

The annual holiday, which marks China's National Day, typically triggers a sharp drop in export activity as factories shut down for the week, prompting carriers to adjust vessel schedules to match reduced demand.

In its latest Sunday Spotlight (Issue 729), Sea-Intelligence reports that the current level of announced blank sailings for the 2025 Golden Week period is significantly below historical norms.

 [Source: Sea-Intelligence]

On the Asia–North America West Coast route, carriers have only scheduled a 3.8% capacity reduction—far less than the 15.4% seen in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 9.3%.

To match last year's level, an additional 21 sailings would need to be cancelled. The East Coast trade lane shows a similar shortfall, with only 4.8% of capacity removed compared to 11.9% in 2024.

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, cautioned that the current figures likely underestimate the true scale of upcoming adjustments.

The warning comes amid softening demand and volatile freight rates.

Sea-Intelligence notes that shipping lines have increasingly delayed blank sailing announcements until closer to departure, adding uncertainty for shippers trying to plan ahead.

"Given the current market conditions and the recent tendency for shipping lines to announce capacity reductions closer to the date of departure during periods of market uncertainty, it is highly likely that more blank sailings will be announced for the 2025 Golden Week period," he said.

"Shippers should anticipate these last-minute capacity reductions and plan accordingly."