Amid ongoing trade disruptions and shifting tariff deadlines, air cargo charters are playing a critical role in keeping supply chains moving, offering fast, flexible delivery options that help businesses navigate global uncertainty, according to Chapman Freeborn. The company describes charters as a "viable option" for supply chain managers seeking to expedite shipments and adapt to volatile market conditions.

Jack Burt, senior vice president of Cargo at Chapman Freeborn USA, noted that the industry is experiencing significant shifts. "The net impact of tariffs on air cargo market demand is likely to be negative, as high tariffs could lead to a reduction in international trade volume."

"Yet air freight has witnessed a surge in recent months with some industry sectors as supply chain managers scramble to move commodities before tariff deadlines kick in," he added, citing Xeneta data showing air freight levels were up 5% in July.

"In times of volatility like this, air cargo charters are at the leading edge of the industry as they provide premium express deliveries," Burt said.

He noted that while tariff uncertainty continues – with higher US-China tariffs postponed for another 90 days — air charter cargos offer supply chain managers a "viable option" for expediting deliveries and navigating the current complexities in global trade.

Unprecedented volatility due to US tariffs

On August 12, China and the U.S. agreed to extend a truce in their ongoing tariff war, with the imposition of much higher tariffs between the world's two largest economies pushed back until November 10.

"While this news is certainly welcome, it extends a period of unprecedented chaos and volatility for US supply chain managers, with no end in sight," the Chapman Freeborn executive said.

He added that whether it is deliveries of raw materials, refined machinery, or produced goods, supply chain decision-makers have "limited visibility" in terms of the tariffs that could occur for global purchases.

Burt noted that this makes it very difficult to make informed decisions on how to allocate capital for a corporation in a smart manner without incurring tariffs. "It is the arrival date of a shipment in the US, rather than the date of purchase, that matters," Burt said.

"For this reason, expediting delivery becomes an important tool in supply chain management. This explains the 5% increase in air cargo witnessed in July."

"Air cargo charter is at the leading edge of expedited delivery. As a result, when the market shifts or there is any kind of imbalance between supply and demand, it is typical to see a jump in air cargo charters, which is what has occurred in recent months," he added.

Standard road, ocean, or rail delivery may not be fast enough to navigate these changes, and therefore, air freight becomes the preferred option, with regional cargo charter addressing the premium end of the market.

"At present, there has been ample capacity for air charter brokers to handle the current increase in load factor resulting from tariff uncertainty," Burt said.

"Because globally demand is down, partially as a result of lower trade levels caused by tariffs, aircraft and crews are available so air charter brokers can successfully match supply with demand."

He clarified, however, that this can change quickly, and certain regions are more challenging. Burt said Vietnam and Southeast Asia, for example, more generally, has less available capacity to meet demand. And naturally, the cheapest air freight capacity is snapped up first.

For specialty aircraft, such as heavy lift craft, there is limited capacity, but he pointed out that this is not related to tariffs; there is simply a limited number of these aircraft.

Commodities shipped using air cargo charters

A diverse range of products is being transported using air cargo charters. This is partly because the landscape of which products from which countries are affected by tariffs is continually changing.

The Chapman Freeborn executive said tariff rates are unique to individual countries, and then each country has a list of specific commodities that are included or exempted.

"This causes a lot of confusion and also means that products of all sizes and types might be air freighted, everything from textiles to industrial machinery," Burt said, adding that high end electronics and computer servers have been one common area for this service.

"Prior to tariffs in Europe kicking in, expedited delivery on servers used for cryptocurrency mining was popular. Another common commodity type is industrial machinery that needs delivery prior to tariff rates kicking in."

Burt said the company's existing structure is designed to handle urgent and unpredictable requests and that Chapman Freeborn has not added staff despite a recent rise in demand.

He added that the firm's global network allows it to absorb demand fluctuations—including those driven by trade disruptions like tariffs—without needing to expand headcount.

Burt pointed out the importance of staying flexible in response to shifting economic conditions.  "It is worth noting that retainer services are also a potential option for supply chain managers," Burt said.

"In this case, a full consultation is provided to put together a tailored plan, which means products can be transported as and when needed. However, even without such a retainer, organizing air cargo shipments within 48 hours is entirely possible," he said.

Outlook for tariffs and air cargo charters

Looking ahead, Burt said the market volatility could persist. "The current levels of disruption and uncertainty caused by tariffs show little sign of easing in the coming months."

"The postponement of higher US-China tariffs will likely result in another push in terms of demand for air cargo charters," he added.

Burt noted that more generally, "we can expect a decline in air cargo as international trade slows," adding that capital decision makers may also choose to wait for things to settle.

"What is clear is that, despite the current volatility, experienced cargo charter brokers have the network, know-how and team to provide expedited deliveries as and when supply chain managers need them," Burt said.