Global air cargo tonnages and average rates have risen in September when compared with August, with full-month tonnages rising almost +3% and rates at the end of September around +5% higher than at the start of the month, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
"The figures reflect a slight post-summer seasonal strengthening of the market, which appeared to have stabilized in recent months following a year and a half of persistent decline — or adjustment back towards pre-Covid patterns of supply and demand," the air cargo market data provider said in a statement.
Smallest monthly decline so far
WorldACD noted that preliminary figures for September as a whole indicate that tonnages were down, year on year (YoY), by -2% — although it is the smallest monthly decline this year.
Figures for week 39 (September 25 to October 1) show a slight drop of -1% in tonnages compared with the previous week, while rates increased by +2%, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
WorldACD said that slight drop in tonnages followed after three consecutive weeks of growth of, respectively, +3%, +4% and +1%.
Compared with the preceding two weeks, the report noted that overall tonnages increased by +3% versus their combined total in weeks 36 and 37, while worldwide rates went up by +3% and capacity remained stable.
At a regional level, increases in tonnages (2Wo2W) were recorded most strongly on flows ex-North America to Central & South America (+15%), between Central & South America and Europe (northbound +9%, southbound +8%), between Europe and North America (+6% for both directions), ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (+11%), ex-Europe to Middle East & South Asia (+9%) and ex-Asia Pacific to Europe (+7%) – ahead of China's National Day Golden Week holiday from October 1-6.
It added that a slight weakening was recorded on the flows ex-North America to Asia Pacific (-2%), ex-Central & South America to North America (-2%) and ex-Europe to Asia Pacific (-1%).
On the pricing side, average global rates increased by +3% on a two-week basis, with the most notable rises from ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (+12%) and ex-Asia Pacific to Europe (+7%).
The strongest drop was recorded on the lane ex-North America to Asia Pacific (-4%).
Volume, rates lower year-on-year
Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, WorldACD said chargeable weight in weeks 38 and 39 was down -2% compared with the equivalent period last year (YoY), with the most notable change on an origin region level being a +7% rise ex-Asia Pacific.
But, similar to previous reports, there were significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America (-15%) and ex-Europe (-9%). Also, tonnages were down for origin Africa (-4%), while origins Central & South America (+3%) and Middle East & South Asia (+1%) were up.
"Overall capacity has increased by +10% compared with last year, as passenger air services continue to return to the market, with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up by a noteworthy +30%," the report said.
It added that other significant year-on-year capacity increases can be observed ex-Middle East & South Asia (+10%), ex-North America (+9%), ex-Europe (+7%) and ex-Africa (+7%), while a drop was recorded ex-Central & South America (-5%).
"Worldwide average rates are currently -31% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.37 per kilo in week 39, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+38% compared to September 2019)," WorldACD said.
