Logistics challenges and market disruptions in July have caused turbulence in the overall airfreight market, but the impact has been far, much less than initially thought.
Writing for the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI), TAC Editor Neil Wilson said the global IT outage in July, US election uncertainties and a late-month sell-off of big US tech stocks failed to sway what is an overall steady outlook for the air cargo industry heading towards the traditional peak season, though he warned of continuing challenges in the horizon which could impact the growth rate trajectory.
"July proved to be another unusual month in the air freight market," he said. "The TAC Data indices ended the month more or less flat overall but at levels still stronger than usual for the summer season when there is often a lull."
Wilson noted that the overall Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC ended the four weeks to July 29 slightly lower by 0.9%, although still ahead by 8.0% over 12 months.
"The underlying trends driving this were also still there, reflecting the continuing rise of e-commerce business, particularly out of China, and ongoing problems in ocean shipping, with higher prices and slower delivery times driving more business into the air cargo sector," he said.
The report noted these trends continue to be reflected in the data for Asia, with the index of outbound routes from Hong Kong (BAI30) ending the month only slightly lower by 0.7% to be ahead by 21.8% year-on-year (YoY).
Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) was also slightly off by 2.9% month-on-month (MoM) but still well ahead by 33.2% year-on-year.
Other routes out of Asia also remain a long way up on levels of 12 months ago, particularly on lanes from Vietnam to the United States and from India to Europe — ahead of recent news that Apple, for instance, is starting to move some of its high-end iPhone 16 production to India.
In contrast, rates out of other regions continue to languish a long way from previous highs.
The report noted that the index of outbound routes from Frankfurt (BAI20) was down 1.6% MoM, ending with a 28.1% decline YoY, while the index for outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) was looking similar at 0.3% lower MoM and 26.1% drop YoY.
Meanwhile, out of the Americas, outbound Chicago (BAI50) had a stronger month in July, gaining 10.0% MoM but still lower by 19.4% YoY.
Air cargo outlook remains positive despite potential disruptions
"Looking ahead, some sources have been arguing for a while that the peak season surge started early – at least a couple of months ago – and capacity was already looking tight for later in the year," Wilson said, adding that with a lot of capacity already reserved in block space agreements (BSAs), some are predicting a big spike in spot rates for the latter months of the year.
"All of that was before arguably the most significant market event of mid-July – the big global IT outage, which caused disruption to schedules including thousands of flight cancellations, particularly in the US affecting major airlines like United, American, and Delta," the TAC Editor added.
With the likelihood that at least some cargo got delayed and that some planes and crew were dislocated from planned positions, Wilson noted that some feared this might have a further ratcheting effect on rates, although there was also a long list of other players – from UPS to Lufthansa to Saudia Cargo – who said there was little or no impact on them from the IT outage.
"The disruption – and potential market distortions – has thus far been much less than initially feared," he said.
The analysis also pointed to some bumps in the road in the market in July, including a late-month sell-off of big US tech stocks.
"Yet markets overall remained relatively positive about the outlook – certainly for equities," Wilson pointed out.
"The global outlook continues to look steady, with US economic growth persisting even while inflation is dropping – and so prospects for lower interest rates improving."
"However, there are still some clouds on the horizon, such as in France, which is suffering serious government debt issues not helped by inconclusive election results," he added.
The report also cited less widely noted developments in air cargo for the month – but supported by the TAC air freight data – where Chinese exports went up sharply in June. Imports, on the other hand, fell again in an economy still suffering from weak domestic demand.
With tariffs on Chinese goods already going up not just into the US but also into Europe, Wilson said China's exporters are also "nervous" about prospects for after the US elections in November, no matter which candidate wins the race for the White House.
"Some commentators who are more cautious about the outlook are also pointing out that, globally, absolute demand is perhaps not so strong as it might look – just rebounding from last year when it was pretty weak," he added, noting that global consumer demand is still relatively lukewarm.
With this, he noted that rates could be rising mainly because shippers are moving goods earlier, which may simply cannibalise future growth.
"If that more negative view proves correct, it could be that any strong peak season spike proves transitory, with rates then slipping back rapidly. On the other hand, industry experts point out that serious problems remain in ocean shipping," Wilson said.
In his analysis, the TAC editor pointed out that ocean shipping costs have gone up significantly, which means the difference in cost with air cargo has also narrowed significantly, making air freight a much more attractive option.
"That situation doesn’t look like changing any time soon," Wilson added.
