Air cargo shows signs of improvement in February; surpasses pre-Covid levels

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AIR CARGO SHOWS SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT IN FEBRUARY; SURPASSES PRE-COVID LEVELS

April 5, 2023

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2023 on global air cargo markets showing that air freight demand rose above pre-pandemic levels.

Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), fell 7.5% compared to February 2022 and was down 8.3% for international operations.

IATA noted that this was half the rate of annual decline seen in the previous two months (-14.9% and -15.3%, respectively). In January, CTKs declined 14.9% year-on-year.

Demand up 2.9% YoY

"February demand for air cargo was 2.9% higher than pre-pandemic levels (February 2019), the first time it has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in eight months," IATA said in a statement.

The trade association of the world's airlines noted that capacity — measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK) — was up 8.6% compared to February 2022.

"The strong uptick in ACTKs reflects the addition of belly capacity as the passenger side of the business continues to recover," it said, noting that international belly capacity grew by 57.0% in February year-over-year, reaching 75.1% of the 2019 (pre-pandemic) capacity.

IATA said several factors in the operating environment should be noted for February, including the global new export orders component of the manufacturing PMI continued to increase in February; global goods trade decreased by 1.5% in January; and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for G7 countries decreased from 6.7% in January to 6.4% in February.

"The story of air cargo in February is one of slowing declines," said Willie Walsh, director-general of IATA, adding that year-on-year demand fell by 7.5%.

Start of improvement trend

"That's half the rate of decline experienced in January. This shifting of gears was sufficient to boost the overall industry into positive territory (+2.9%) compared to pre-pandemic levels," the IATA chief said.

"An optimistic eye could see the start of an improvement trend that leads to market stabilization and a return to more normal demand patterns after dramatic ups and downs in recent years," Walsh further said.

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Source: The International Air Transport Association

February Regional Performance

In terms of regional performance, IATA said Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 6.0% in February 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.

However, it noted that this was a significant improvement in performance compared to January (-19.0%).

IATA said airlines in the region benefitted from China's reopening, which saw restrictions lifted and economic activities resumed.

Available capacity in the region increased by 19.9% compared to February 2022 as more and more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business.

North American carriers posted a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in February. IATA said this was a "solid improvement" in performance compared to January (-8.7%).

European carriers saw the weakest performance of all regions, with a 15.3% decrease in cargo volumes compared to the same month in 2022 — as airlines in the region continue to be most affected by the war in Ukraine.

IATA said, however, that this was an improvement in performance compared to January (-20.4%).

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern carriers experienced an 8.1% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023 — also a slight improvement to the previous month (-11.8%).

Latin American carriers reported a 2.7% decrease in cargo volumes year-on-year, which was also a drop in performance compared to January which saw a 4.6% increase.

African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by 3.4% in February 2023 compared to February 2022.

IATA said this was an improvement in performance compared to the previous month (-9.5%). Notably, Africa to Asia route area experienced significant cargo demand growth in February, up 39.5% year-on-year, the report said.